APM Greater Bay Area Network - Outcome Certainty: Measuring what a programme can actually prove
This session introduces Outcome Certainty, a practical approach to assessing whether a programme is genuinely on track to deliver its approved objectives, rather than simply reporting progress, milestones, or expenditure. Drawing on evidence from over 16,000 major projects, it examines how to identify the conditions required for outcomes to be achieved, assess the extent to which those conditions are supported by evidence, and distinguish proven facts from unsupported assertions. Using existing programme documentation, the method reveals delivery exposure and evaluates whether investments remain aligned with the outcomes they were intended to achieve.
Every major programme reports progress. Milestones, activity, spend against profile - all absolutely necessary but oftentimes it doesn't answer the question that matters for the C-suite: will this deliver what was approved?
Progress measures what has been done. It rarely carries the information about whether the outcome will arrive. Across 16,000+ major projects, one in two hundred landed on budget, on time, with the benefits promised. The reporting in the other 199 was answering a different question.
This session looks at how as a profession we can offer a different, clearer view. For any objective, what must be true for it to hold - and what proportion of those conditions can be evidenced?
We will work through the method live on a programme: how conditions are established, how existing documents are read as evidence rather than as reporting, why an asserted claim counts as nothing, and what surfaces when the budget is read against the outcomes it was approved to purchase.
Outcome Certainty relies on nothing new being produced. Everything already exists; its absence is the first finding of exposure.
Date:
22 October 2026
Time:
18:00 - 19:00 HKT
Venue:
Online webinar
Organiser:
CPD:
1.00
Cost:
Free to attend
Who should attend:
This webinar is suitable for professionals with any level of experience.
APM Body of Knowledge 8th edition
4.6.1 Continuing Professional Development (CPD)
Speaker:
Alec Anderson, MBCI - Founder & Principal Risk Advisor, Enterprise Risk Partners
Alec Anderson, MBCI, is a risk, governance and resilience executive with more than 20 years' experience leading enterprise and programme risk across Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
In Hong Kong he spent seven years as a senior risk executive at the Hong Kong Jockey Club. There he established its enterprise risk and business continuity frameworks and designed a project audit methodology later adopted by the internal audit teams of the Hong Kong Exchange and NASDAQ. With Turner & Townsend he delivered quantitative schedule and cost risk analysis for Airport Authority Hong Kong's Three Runway System, and led major-programme risk work in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. His wider career includes Head of Risk at URENCO on a €10bn nuclear capital portfolio, ERM for Siemens' Yunex Traffic, and portfolio risk for Ireland's 5GW offshore wind programme and Thames Water's £25bn asset management plan.
Today, as founder of Enterprise Risk Partners, he advises boards and senior responsible owners on national-scale infrastructure. His focus is a question most programmes struggle to answer with evidence: will we actually deliver the outcome we promised?
He is a guest lecturer at Loughborough University and a member of the Business Continuity Institute and the Institute of Risk Management.
Host:
Jim Pippin - Head of Project Management Office and Project Delivery, Growth Markets at CLP Holdings Ltd
Jim is responsible for development and execution of projects across Southeast Asia. Prior to that he was responsible for support and oversight of the development and execution of projects across CLP’s regions including China, India, and Australia as well as functional management of CLP’s Project Management Governance System. Jim also served as the Dean of CLP’s Project Management Academy which is the only corporate APM accredited training provider in Hong Kong.
Outside of his work roles, Jim is a current volunteer and past Network Lead of the Association of Project Management - Greater Bay Area Network first established in September 1991, as the APM Hong Kong Branch.
